The Bull Brew · Daily Tool No. 6

Reno Math

The make-ready rehab budget builder. Price the whole renovation room by room, keep cosmetics and systems in separate columns, and know your number before the contractor's quote hypnotizes you.

The method

The perfect deal is a grandmother house: ugly wallpaper and a 1970s kitchen on top of a good roof and a young furnace. Cosmetics are the discount. Systems are the risk.

So this tool keeps them in separate columns. If the systems column starts eating the budget, the deal isn't a cosmetic flip with a little paint — it's a construction project wearing a costume, and it should be priced like one.

Rule of thumb baked in everywhere below: a rehab budget without contingency is a wish, not a budget.

I. The work, room by room

Set a finish level per line — Rental grade (durable, cheap), Mid (solid), Flip (retail-ready). Type a custom number to override any preset. Switch a line Off to skip it.

Cosmetics — the discount

The ugly that makes it cheap. Budget this generously; it's where the value is created.

Systems — the risk

The invisible stuff that kills deals. Price it honestly, then verify with a real quote.

Your own line items

The weird stuff every house has — the leaning fence, the mystery smell, the shed full of raccoons.

II. The math on top

The stuff contractors forget to mention until the invoice.

Finish level, all at once

Rental-grade everything? One tap.

Padding & overhead

The two line items nobody wants to admit exist.

15% minimum. 20%+ for 1970s surprises.
0 if you're the GC. 10–15 if you're not.

Your rehab budget

Set the finish levels above — the number lands here.

–
All-in rehab budget
–
Cost per sq ft
–
Hard costs (no padding)
–
Contingency + markup
Cosmetics $– Systems $–

III. Does the deal still work?

The rehab budget is only half the underwriting. The other half is the 70% rule.

The 70% rule check

Max offer = ARV × 70% − rehab − everything else it costs you.

Buy-side closing, 6 months of carry, sell-side commission & closing.

The verdict

Live off your numbers above.

How the math works (no black boxes)
Presets are starting points, not quotes. They reflect typical U.S. investor-grade pricing — your market, your contractor, and the house's actual condition move every number. Walk the property with a contractor before money moves.

Saved budgets

No saved budgets yet. When a scope pencils out, park it here.