The Bull Brew · Landlord Tool

Raise or Keep?

One turnover erases years of a small raise. Run the expected-value math before you knock on the door.

Your numbers

Answer honestly — especially the last one. Landlords lie to themselves about this number.

An A tenant who pays like clockwork is worth more than $50 more from a stranger. The rating sets the suggested walk-away chance below.
30%
How long the unit sits empty between tenants. Not what your agent promises — what actually happens.
Paint, clean, small repairs, photos, listing, leasing fee. One number.

Saved scenarios

Kept on this device only. Compare units side by side.

The method

A rent increase is a bet, not a decision. Every raise carries two outcomes, and most landlords only price one of them — the extra income. The other one, a turnover, is bigger than it feels: vacancy loss plus make-ready cost, plus the quiet risk that the next tenant pays late.

Expected value = (1 − p) × annual raise − p × turnover cost

where p is your honest chance the tenant walks. A $75 raise is $900 a year. A single 30-day turnover on an $1,875 unit plus $2,200 of make-ready is over $4,000. The raise has to win roughly 4 out of 5 coin flips just to break even. That's the asymmetry: small gains, occasionally large losses. Run it, respect it.

A known good tenant is an asset. Price the raise like you'd price losing one.