The moving-day math
You're moving. Now the only question that matters: sell the house and invest the money, or keep it as a rental and let someone else pay the mortgage? Ten-year wealth math, the rent you'd need to win, and the capital-gains clock you're racing.
What you own and what you still owe.
What's left on the loan you're handing to a tenant.
The honest net — after everyone takes their cut.
Underwrite it like an investor would — because you are one now.
What the sale money would do if you let it go to work in the market.
…
First-year snapshot and the rent that flips the answer.
Keep = equity + reinvested after-tax cash flow. Sell = proceeds invested in the market. Apples to apples.
| Year | Keep | Sell | Leader | Gap |
|---|
Keep a few versions — current rent vs. optimistic rent, self-managed vs. manager.
Selling means proceeds after the mortgage payoff, agent commissions, closing costs and capital-gains tax — then that cash compounds in the market at your assumed return.
Keeping means your equity compounds through appreciation and amortization, plus every year's after-tax cash flow reinvested at that same market return. Comparing wealth, not monthly cash flow, is the only honest frame — a rental can lose money monthly and still win on equity.
Depreciation is the quiet hero: the building (not the land) writes off over 27.5 years, creating a paper loss that shields rental income from taxes. The IRS takes some back as depreciation recapture when you eventually sell — this tool doesn't model recapture, so keeping's edge is slightly overstated on long holds.
The exclusion clock: live in it 2 of the last 5 years and up to $250k/$500k of gain is tax-free. Move out and the clock starts — roughly 3 years later the exclusion is gone. If your gain is big, that clock alone can be the deciding factor.
Simplified on purpose: no state-by-state tax rules, no PMI, no refinancing, no "tenant trashes the place" premium. Not tax advice — run the final version past your CPA.